In the 2011 film Moneyball, Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane and his analytics guru Peter Brand turn baseball scouting upside down by ditching gut instinct and trusting the math instead. They were looking to maximize value, and it worked. In 2002, the A's won 20 straight games and were American League West champions with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball.
Good financial advisors work a lot like that. We have all the software and know all the math to map out your financial future--cashflow analysis, estimated returns, tax strategies, probabilities of success, etc. We know how to analyze your current financial situation and help you make decisions to maximize your net worth.
But here's where financial planning diverges from baseball: it's not always about maximizing. There's the mathematically right answer, then there's the right answer for you.
For example, your net worth and time horizon may allow you to take on as much risk as you want--your portfolio could get cut in half and it wouldn't come close to affecting your standard of living. But if you can't sleep during periods of volatility (e.g. March 2026), ignore the math and dial down the portfolio risk. A portfolio you can stick with beats an optimal one you'll abandon.
Or maybe the financial planning software recommends waiting to draw Social Security until you are 70 to maximize lifetime benefits. But relying solely on your investment portfolio in the interim makes you uncomfortable, and drawing early would let you live more freely. The math says wait. Your life says go.
Sometimes you have to make the anti-Moneyball decision. Even Beane couldn't fully commit to his own philosophy, musing at the end of the film, "How can you not be romantic about baseball?" Money is a tool meant to enrich our lives, and sometimes that means ignoring the math. It's not always about maximizing. It's about enjoying.
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Josh Norris is an Investment Advisory Representative of LeFleur Financial. Josh can be reached at josh@lefleurfinancial.com.
Josh Norris, CPA, CFP, CFA is the managing member of LeFleur Financial, a wealth management and tax advisory firm.