Many sports fans know the often-quoted stat that for decades Babe Ruth held the record for both the most home runs and the most strikeouts. Back then, pitchers didn’t rely on overwhelming velocity—they relied on movement. And with Ruth’s long, powerful swing, he often had to commit early, getting out in front of the pitch.

Similarly, investing titans Ray Dalio (founder of Bridgewater Associates) and Peter Lynch (legendary manager of Fidelity’s Magellan Fund) both called the tech bubble. Unfortunately, they made that call in 1995, and the market didn’t peak until March 2000. During that time, the NASDAQ rose nearly 1,100%.¹ In other words: they swung early and struck out.

Currently, comparisons between AI stocks and the tech bubble abound. And, yes, valuations have climbed above historical norms, but we have no idea where we are in the cycle. Are we in 1995, when things only looked expensive before rising another 1,100%? Or are we in late 1999, a few months from exhaustion? If two of the greatest investors of their generation couldn’t nail that timing, it’s unrealistic to think the average investor can today.

To be fair, the idea of a tech-like bubble is unsettling—the S&P 500 didn’t fully recover its 2000 peak until 2007. But even the market lows of 2002 were still above the market highs of 1995—a reminder that long-term investors were better off staying invested than trying to sidestep the bubble. That’s why maintaining a long-term horizon matters. And if you have a shorter time horizon or a lower tolerance for volatility, your portfolio should reflect that from the start.

Markets will pull back at some point—hopefully not as drastically as they did in 2000. But the goal isn’t to perfectly time an exit and re-entry. The goal is to stay disciplined, stay invested, and let a diversified portfolio do its job.

Participation beats prediction.

1. The Economist, “How to Spot a Bubble Bursting,” December 1, 2025. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/12/01/how-to-spot-a-bubble-bursting